It’s been a week since a political turmoil erupted in Maharashtra. Week ago, the rebellion looked like a coup covertly sponsored by BJP. But after a week, I see it somewhat differently.
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| Image source: Here |
I think the rebellion is truly a
rift between Shivsena MLAs and NCP. MVA has become a ruse set up by NCP. Thackeray
family have been catered while remaining leadership of Shivsena has been
deprived from exploiting the power. It is a different issue why NCP must do
this to Shivsena and we will not discuss that in depth here except some passing
remarks. Perhaps such opportunism is a defining trait of NCP politics. We must remember
that NCP is a party borne out of an ambition nourished on opportunism.
Why it is a rift between Shivsena
leadership barring Thackeray and NCP? Because if it is a BJP orchestrated coup
then there would have been swift steps towards BJP forming the government. If it
would have been BJP sponsored coup, then BJP would have been swift to merge the
rebels with itself once the requirements of numbers needed for BJP and numbers
needed to clear the anti-defection law were in place. Those numbers are in
place for last few days. What BJP needs is governor asking MVA to prove their
majority once rebel MLAs have withdrawn their support and subsequent invitation
to form the government. I am assuming that BJP can muster the majority in a
house with diminished number due to disqualification. If 40 MLAs are disqualified,
then majority is 125. BJP seems to have this number. Hence, the
disqualification is aimed at 16 MLAs as it raises the required majority to 137
and makes the game difficult for BJP on its own. In either of these scenarios,
rebel MLAs vying to snatch the control of Shivsena will not be a necessary step
in that case.
But there
is no indication of BJP facilitating the merge. On the other hand, rebel group
is set to register itself as a separate outfit. In fact, rebel group seems to prefer
if they can claim the Shivsena itself, with or without Thackeray family. Merging
with BJP is not on cards, at least on those which we can guess by now. And since
merging with BJP, like Karnataka coup, is not seem to be happening, it is
perhaps primarily a dissent within Shivsena which is facilitated by BJP than
BJP sponsored coup.
It is not difficult to see why BJP
is not keen on merge. In 2014, BJP contested on almost all 288 seats in
Maharashtra on its own. (They had minor partners.) Since then, there is a
systematic effort by BJP to groom its own leadership in those constituencies
which used to be Shivsena constituencies in pre-2014 elections. If BJP
assimilates the rebels, it will be upsetting its own cadre which has been
preparing for independent fight in 2024 general and state assembly. Merge helps
rebels since they get to benefit from BJP’s prowess of winning elections along
with increasing their exploitation of power in remaining term of this assembly.
BJP’s gain is limited to being in power for next 2.5 years assuming it is BJP
which is likely to win in 2024 due to perception of MVA as a lacklustre and
misfit alliance. Accommodating the rebels after merge can lead to a greater
cost than benefits.
If our argument so far is true, then
the rift between Shivsena MLAs and NCP must have been a big one. The rebels,
except their leadership, face dim prospect, in remaining term as well as in their
electoral future unless they get assurance of BJP support for their electoral
future. Most of the rebels have gambled. The gamble can be explained as
follows. For a rebel MLA, the likelihood of getting re-elected even without BJP
support seems to be greater than likelihood of getting re-elected by being in
MVA. It is that bad.
It also explains why Shinde and
other rebel leaders have been explicit in terming NCP as a problem. It also
explains why rebel group prefers to portray themselves as Shivsena and not as a
splinter, rebel outfit. If rebel are seen as those truly representing Shivsena
then it improves their re-election prospects.
Either way, whether rebels lose or Thackeray,
BJP sets to gain. Whatever form Shivsena retains, it will be a weaker form and
that means weakened competition on Hindutva aspect. It allows BJP to monopolize
and enlarge its captive vote share further. Most likely, it is set to enjoy power
in remaining term as well as in next. Little wait does not harm their chances. The
only worry they might be having is some of the rebel MLAs, especially those
with minor status, returning to Thackeray camp due to prolonged uncertainty
which makes them come back and be in power at least for remaining term.
A true test of this possible explanation is what happens till 11th of July. If we see BJP coming to power in this interval, this explanation is likely to a non-dominant or even wrong explanation of what has happened. But if legal and constitutional battle rages on, then this explanation is perhaps the best explanation.