Inconsistencies and Contradictions

Results of India general elections 2024 have thrown a surprise no one saw coming. NDA has secured a majority but BJP on its own has failed to secure the majority, unlike last two general elections.                No exit poll predicted this scenario. As per exit polls, BJP was going to reach majority mark on its own and NDA was going to win about 350 seats. But BJP has won 240 seats and NDA has won 292 seats. The results seem to be beyond the confidence intervals projected for the prediction. What does that say about exit polls? There are multiple possible answers to this question. I will rule out conspiracy answers at the outset. I am not going ahead with argument that exit polls were staged to help some agents. One interesting possibility that I might want to consider is false answers from voters. Respondent’s response to exit poll enumerator can be a strategic choice if respondent thinks that revealing what she truly voted is not in her best interests. If she believes that many

  More than 100 have died in Balia and Deoria district of Uttar Pradesh in last few days . These districts have experienced heatwave conditions. IMD has given orange alert warning (40℃ to 45℃) for these as well as other districts in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. For those who are aware, Kim Stanley Robinson’s Climate fiction ‘The Ministry for the Future’ opens with a stunning description of heatwave related deaths in Uttar Pradesh. What is happening now in Deoria and Balia district has uncanny resemblance to what author has imagined. In some sense, we have been made aware of what awaits us, though we have decided to bury it because it is inconvenient. Even now, these deaths are not officially attributed to heatwave. Here is what I think have happened. It is a hypothesis rather than a statement with some proof. Balia and Deoria are districts near Ganga, a large water body. Rising temperatures have caused greater evaporation of this water body leading to excessive humidity in the surround

3 months of the summer of 2023 have passed so far. Compared to last year, this summer has been less scorching. The temperatures in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) were around 40℃ in March and April 2022. This year, it was only in April, temperatures rose to that uncomfortable level. March 2023 was surprisingly pleasant this time, more so because we anticipated something harsher. After the 23 rd April 2023, temperature have dropped by few degrees and most importantly it has become somewhat tolerable again. But this summer has left an indelible mark on our memory due to several deaths caused by heatstroke on 16 th April 2023 . Deaths of heatstroke is not the possibility one typically associates with MMR. We have train track deaths and reckless driving for such association. (Perhaps we add ‘mauled by stray dogs’ as well, if not now then in near future!) Those deaths reminded me of climate fiction ‘ The Ministry for the Future ’ by Kim Stanley Robinson. This novel opens with a clima

In Industrial organization, study of competitiveness and market power in industry, there is a famous model called ‘ linear city ’. It was first developed by Herold Hotelling . The model can be described as follows: suppose there is a road of length 1 km running parallel to the beach. Two eateries are deciding where to locate. The footfall of consumers is evenly available across the length of the road. The model says that these both the eateries will locate in the middle.  The model is way of thinking - when preferences of consumers are spread over a range, how firms would like to position themselves to grab maximum profit through maximum market share.   The analogy of road representing consumer preferences can be used to describe voter preferences as well. For this discussion, I am focusing on religious politics in India. So, one extreme of this road means extreme right-wing position – which sees India as place where all non-Hindus are under total control of Hindus in the short run and

 So, my prediction in the previous post has gone wrong, at least in part. Uddhav Thackeray (UT) has resigned and MVA government has ended with it. BJP hastened the end in merely 24 hours. Last night, Fadnavis met the governor. Then governor asked for the floor test on 30 th June. Courtroom drama ensued. But as it happens, what BJP wishes and what supreme court rules coincided once more. Since rebel MLAs are not yet disqualified, MVA government has lost the majority. Fadnavis, as per his famous quote, is back again.     UT has two years of Covid during his rule. His government managed three waves progressively better. Especially during most difficult delta wave, Maharashtra never reached the alarming emergency and apathy observed in some other states of India. Apart from this, his tenure was marred by coalition stress. NCP became the proxy ruling party and that effectively sabotaged the coalition. UT too allowed some blabbermouths to become bigwigs of the party, clearly downplaying th

 It’s been a week since a political turmoil erupted in Maharashtra. Week ago, the rebellion looked like a coup covertly sponsored by BJP. But after a week, I see it somewhat differently. Image source: Here               I think the rebellion is truly a rift between Shivsena MLAs and NCP. MVA has become a ruse set up by NCP. Thackeray family have been catered while remaining leadership of Shivsena has been deprived from exploiting the power. It is a different issue why NCP must do this to Shivsena and we will not discuss that in depth here except some passing remarks. Perhaps such opportunism is a defining trait of NCP politics. We must remember that NCP is a party borne out of an ambition nourished on opportunism.             Why it is a rift between Shivsena leadership barring Thackeray and NCP? Because if it is a BJP orchestrated coup then there would have been swift steps towards BJP forming the government. If it would have been BJP sponsored coup, then BJP would have been swift

It is easy to lament what is happening in Maharashtra politics now. Playing with decency is unsaid expectation in human interactions. The decency is often not part of rules. Toppling the ruling disposition through turncoats will always have a foul appearance, even though currently BJP has enough spin doctors who can tell that what BJP is currently doing is the ‘right’ thing. Well, I am beyond the lament. I have accepted that being immoral is what we fundamentally are. Perhaps that’s why we have attempting to shape this fundamental tendency through morality, because we are afraid of what we will be if we just let ourselves amok. After lament, one can have a marvel at strategic moves which are being played. One can also draw some short- and long-term implications. That is what I am attempting now. 1.       BJP has learned from 80 hours government they had in 2019. That time they believed in a list Ajit Pawar had with him. This time, they are making sure that rebels are huddled, head-