Maharashtra politics – MVA has fallen.

 So, my prediction in the previous post has gone wrong, at least in part. Uddhav Thackeray (UT) has resigned and MVA government has ended with it. BJP hastened the end in merely 24 hours. Last night, Fadnavis met the governor. Then governor asked for the floor test on 30^th June. Courtroom drama ensued. But as it happens, what BJP wishes and what supreme court rules coincided once more. Since rebel MLAs are not yet disqualified, MVA government has lost the majority. Fadnavis, as per his famous quote, is back again. 

 

UT has two years of Covid during his rule. His government managed three waves progressively better. Especially during most difficult delta wave, Maharashtra never reached the alarming emergency and apathy observed in some other states of India. Apart from this, his tenure was marred by coalition stress. NCP became the proxy ruling party and that effectively sabotaged the coalition. UT too allowed some blabbermouths to become bigwigs of the party, clearly downplaying the ambition of those second in line. As ex-CM Prithviraj Chavhan pointed out in interview to ABP Majha after UT’s resignation, there was a problem of leadership quality. UT could have sensed the rebellion earlier and have broken it by offering cabinet births to some from the rebel camp. It will remain the matter for reporters and political historian to unearth how the coup was pulled off without a whiff. Be that as it may. Some questions are still unanswered. It doesn’t seem that Shinde will get to retain the control of Shivsena. Maybe he will get de jure control of the party, depending on how court rules. Considering the correlation pattern of BJP preferences being legally valid, it is likely thar Shinde camp will obtain the control of Shivsena. The transition of control can be messy, though BJP will be controlling the police then. If they get the control, Shinde camp will kick out the Thackeray and whoever will be with them by then or by some other manner, two separate outfits will come into existence. But even if Shivsena is retained by Shinde camp, it will be seen as traitors’ party vis-à-vis original party of Thackeray. Shinde’s Shivsena is bound to exist as puppet of BJP. Thackeray is going to be a leader of highly malnourished party and unless something happens against the odd, it is bound to fade into irrelevance. GMMC elections will be the last chance for flicker to Thackeray camp, but it looks bleak for them as of now. Thackeray will not be able to use sympathy for long. Captive Shivsena voter will now be divided in two camps. Thackeray will not have any rallying point except the treason and treason will fade soon. Shivsena’s fade is start of the demise of regional parties. NCP will next in line in case of Maharashtra and perhaps Congress as well. Even in other states, regional parties will face the same prospects once they are out of power and once their charismatic leadership loses the charisma. Next election in West Bengal can prove last for TMC. In UP, SP seems to be disheartened and disoriented after losing 2022 assembly elections, case akin to RJD in Bihar. In Karnataka, Devegauda’s Janta Dal trades the same path. BSP seems to be quite ahead on the path of irrelevance. Their leaders might retain media clout for long, but their electoral might is on the wane. Fall of MVA is another incidence that vindicates the old saying – power corrupts, and absolute power corrupt absolutely. The BJP was brazen in applying all the machinery in its disposal in making ruling difficult for MVA. It was indecent. The typical counter-justification will be of everything being fair in politics, a pet peeve of Hindutva camp these days. I remember the lament same people used to express during NDA-1 times about two short-lived governments of Vajpayee. But now since they have power, they cannot let morality control the desire to use power to further increase the power. That’s the vindication. But again, BJP had to abuse the power it had. If MVA would have delivered satisfactorily, then BJP’s 2024 state election prospect would have been dim. Facilitating the coup was just the last move in exercise of power BJP has been employing since the start of the MVA. Short-run interest is how BJP will be in remaining two years. Some vengeance is expected, and it will help BJP to diminish the opposition further. The bulldozer policy too can make appearance in Maharashtra, as it is being employed in other BJP states. BJP will play to consolidate the non-SC Hindu vote, which requires playing the polarization along with steady economic growth. Unfortunately, the time has never been riper than now.