Inconsistencies and Contradictions

3 months of the summer of 2023 have passed so far. Compared to last year, this summer has been less scorching. The temperatures in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) were around 40℃ in March and April 2022. This year, it was only in April, temperatures rose to that uncomfortable level. March 2023 was surprisingly pleasant this time, more so because we anticipated something harsher. After the 23 rd April 2023, temperature have dropped by few degrees and most importantly it has become somewhat tolerable again. But this summer has left an indelible mark on our memory due to several deaths caused by heatstroke on 16 th April 2023 . Deaths of heatstroke is not the possibility one typically associates with MMR. We have train track deaths and reckless driving for such association. (Perhaps we add ‘mauled by stray dogs’ as well, if not now then in near future!) Those deaths reminded me of climate fiction ‘ The Ministry for the Future ’ by Kim Stanley Robinson. This novel opens with a clima...

In Industrial organization, study of competitiveness and market power in industry, there is a famous model called ‘ linear city ’. It was first developed by Herold Hotelling . The model can be described as follows: suppose there is a road of length 1 km running parallel to the beach. Two eateries are deciding where to locate. The footfall of consumers is evenly available across the length of the road. The model says that these both the eateries will locate in the middle.  The model is way of thinking - when preferences of consumers are spread over a range, how firms would like to position themselves to grab maximum profit through maximum market share.   The analogy of road representing consumer preferences can be used to describe voter preferences as well. For this discussion, I am focusing on religious politics in India. So, one extreme of this road means extreme right-wing position – which sees India as place where all non-Hindus are under total control of Hindus in the...

 It’s been a week since a political turmoil erupted in Maharashtra. Week ago, the rebellion looked like a coup covertly sponsored by BJP. But after a week, I see it somewhat differently. Image source: Here               I think the rebellion is truly a rift between Shivsena MLAs and NCP. MVA has become a ruse set up by NCP. Thackeray family have been catered while remaining leadership of Shivsena has been deprived from exploiting the power. It is a different issue why NCP must do this to Shivsena and we will not discuss that in depth here except some passing remarks. Perhaps such opportunism is a defining trait of NCP politics. We must remember that NCP is a party borne out of an ambition nourished on opportunism.             Why it is a rift between Shivsena leadership barring Thackeray and NCP? Because if it is a BJP orchestrated coup then there would have been s...

It is easy to lament what is happening in Maharashtra politics now. Playing with decency is unsaid expectation in human interactions. The decency is often not part of rules. Toppling the ruling disposition through turncoats will always have a foul appearance, even though currently BJP has enough spin doctors who can tell that what BJP is currently doing is the ‘right’ thing. Well, I am beyond the lament. I have accepted that being immoral is what we fundamentally are. Perhaps that’s why we have attempting to shape this fundamental tendency through morality, because we are afraid of what we will be if we just let ourselves amok. After lament, one can have a marvel at strategic moves which are being played. One can also draw some short- and long-term implications. That is what I am attempting now. 1.       BJP has learned from 80 hours government they had in 2019. That time they believed in a list Ajit Pawar had with him. This time, they are making sure that r...

 It’s hot. It is unbearably hot during day, and it is hot even when it is not the day. It is an understatement. It is the hottest summer in the memory that I can gather credibly in mind. But I doubt the memory. I think maybe it is because I am getting older, and hence grumpier. But newspapers too are saying so, about this summer being a brutal one in last so and so years, with heatwave that doesn’t seem to recede. But we know news are about being sensational these days, and not necessarily factual. Maybe they have not really checked the data which is there (means which is yet there). So, I checked it, to see whether this summer is especially scorching, to foretell whether all the summers to come will be similar, or this is just the odd hotter one. From the little systematic evidence that I can find on internet (along with realization that systematic historical weather information, even at aggregate level is hard to find except here ), I can infer that Mumbai is perhaps hotter tha...

The farm laws have been repealed. Government's decision to repeal hints that accusations of agitators about farm laws are intended to end the MSP regime and hurt the big farmers might have been true. And there is no surprise. The farm laws were about easing the fiscal burden government faced due to procurement based on MSP. If government is not planning to ditch this route, then why it was not ready to make a law for using it? - The repeal seems to vindicate the doubt. Government failed to communicate the potential trajectory of changes the laws could have generated. One reason why government would have chosen not to reveal it is because it might have revealed some unpleasant possibilities, like some big businesses benefiting or section of farmers losing out and large section of farmers having no gain – no loss from it. But there is another reason why government chose to not communicate. It did not because it is extremely paternalistic towards Indians. The approach of Modi govern...

 I read today about arrest of Maoist/Naxalite (I will use the terms interchangeably) Prashant Bose. Few days back, Milind Teltumbade died in encounter with police in Gadchiroli.  I admire Naxalites. It takes courage to take up on mighty state, especially when your life on such path is not going to be a cozy one. Whether we agree with path of Naxalites or not, whether we subscribe to ideology on left or right, we must ask - why would one participate in the armed struggle against the national state as mighty as India? The lifelong participation in armed struggle cannot be without a driving force. Influence in youth can drive one towards such path, but then disillusion can set in quickly.  It is easy to criticize or even condemn 'violence'. The kind of life I am living and I am likely to live, I am unlikely to experience a systematic violence due to religion, class, or caste/tribe. I am also unlikely to get exploited or uprooted due to these factors. But is the life of a tri...

 On 7 th June 2021, PM has announced that 21 st June onwards there will not be state government supplied vaccination for age group 18-45 and all publicly provided vaccination will be through union government. For the end user of government vaccination, it remains to be a free vaccine as it was earlier, but it is likely that availability will improve. So, henceforth state governments will not have to deal with vaccine makers. When there are multiple users and limited resource, allocation decision is a key decision. When state governments were dealing with vaccine makers, vaccine makers had the right/power to choose the allocation. Now, union government will have that right. Since we see vaccination as a key national activity, it is indeed a correct change that democratically elected entity oversees allocation question. So now vaccination policy in India stands in the optimal form after a required course-correction. There is a nationwide free supply of vaccine only by union gov...

 Contempt is a notion defined with pre-existence of sense of self. If I do not possess ego, a sense of self, then I will not get offended by any contempt thrown at me. Yet, contempt plays a role in society in terms of a signal. We learn by experiences, but we chose through signals. I decide to buy based on reviews, which are signals. I decide to choose a path of education based on signals. Contempt can change the nature of signals about a person, an organization and an institution and change in signals can bring change in response of clients. This is the logic of reaction of supreme court, that if nature of perception of Supreme court changes due to contemptuous statements about supreme court then it will lead to  harm of the nation as Indians will use the institution of Supreme court in sub-optimal manner. It is a kind of utilitarian or consequential logic. The objection of Prashant Bhushan (PB) remark is not out of the nature of remarks per say, but due to the consequences....

I thank Milind Watve for a thought-provoking blogpost ‘ Covid 19: We need neither vaccine nor herd immunity ’ (dated 27 th May 2020). The key argument of blogpost is death rate of Covid19 is declining and in future it will be like seasonal flu.             The argument has been presented with the help of certain graph which I am reproducing here. The graph represents Case Fatality Rate, ratio of deaths due to diseases to infection due to diseases  https://milindwatve.home.blog/2020/05/27/covid-19-we-need-neither-vaccine-nor-herd-immunity/?fbclid=IwAR1D0wMndXAMT5p41H5yyfklETgEEpnzzB72kOWNn1UykOx5nk8oaelD-ZY It is based on this graph that blogger concludes that there is a downward trend in CFR. He further states, that after certain number of days (35 as per his prediction, though he has expressed caveats about it), ‘Covid 19 will remain only as dangerous as any seasonal flu’ ( emphasis mine ). I would like to note that blogger...