Inconsistencies and Contradictions

पुढे दिलेल्या लिंक्स आणि थोडेसे विश्लेषण, त्यांत आलेली अनेक मते, शक्यता ह्यांच्यातून काही हायपोथेसिस मिळतील अशा दृष्टीने मी त्यांच्याकडे बघतो. ठाम काही बोलण्यासाठी लागणारा डेटा आणि clarity इतक्या पटकन येणार नाही (मला तरी) असं मला वाटतं. १.      प्रत्यक्षात छापलेले जुने रद्द चलन ( किंमत सुमारे १४ ट्रिलीयन रुपये) आणि चलनबदलीच्या कालावधीत बँकात जमा होणारे जुने रद्द चलन ह्यांच्यात्तील फरक हा रिझर्व्ह बँकेला फायदा ठरेल. कायद्याने तो सरकारला उपलब्ध होईल. सरकार त्याचा वापर करू शकते. अनेक निरीक्षकांच्या मते एन.पी.ए.च्या समस्येने ग्रासलेल्या बँकांना re-capitalize करायला हा फायदा वापरता येईल. रिझर्व्ह बँकेचे माजी गव्हर्नर डी. सुब्बाराव ह्यांनी असे करणे चुकीचे ठरेल असं म्हटलं आहे . (त्याच वक्तव्यात चलनबदलीचे फायदे हे तोट्याहून अधिक आहेत असेही त्यांनी म्हटले आहे.) हा फरक कशामुळे निर्माण होईल? ह्याचे लोकप्रिय उत्तर आहे कि काळ्या पैशामुळे. बेहिशोबी चलन हे बँकात बदलायला आणले जाणार नाही किंवा आणणे अशक्य असेल आणि त्यामुळे त्याची किंमत विरून जाईल. सुमारे ३ ट्रिलीयन रुपये एवढ्या किंमतीचा फरक यावा

I have come across the ‘tragedy of commons’ while learning about the Public Goods. Last night, standing in the queue at the ATM, I witnessed something which made me thought about ‘Tragedy of Commons’.          There were about 20 people in the ATM queue, few were informing others, few were walking towards it and it was anticipated that many more will flock in soon. The machine was dispensing only ₹ 2000 notes. There was a guard inside in ATM who was insisting that a person should use a single ATM card when he is in front of the ATM. As he reasoned with few customers, such restriction will allow more people to withdraw cash. Initially, customers agreed to this reasoning and made only one withdrawal. But soon, a customer argued that how can this guard enforce such restriction and he (customer) is not aware of any such rule enforced from the government or the Bank who operates this ATM. Because of the rule pointing argument and more than that, sensing the not in favor balance of power

Now, it has been week when we woke up to a realization that ₹ 500 and $ 1000 notes that many of us had are no more a legal tender. After the frenzied 1 st day, when everyone kept strategizing about their response, 2 nd day onwards, we are witnessing long queues in bank branches and ATMs. There are reports of 25 deaths in the country during the week which are reported to be due to demonetization decision. Market has been in the red, though on the first day, after collapsing for about more than 1500 points, it recovered back strongly. But then 14 th and 15 th November, market has collapsed further. (As I am writing this on 16 th November morning around 9 AM, market is up by about 150 points.) Newspapers have been reporting about long queues and slow sales. Somehow, there is no way that one can credibly verify what is happening in different parts of the country. Social media is abuzz with mainly support and little critique. That’s the grip of current government on minds. I think