Inconsistencies and Contradictions

Results of India general elections 2024 have thrown a surprise no one saw coming. NDA has secured a majority but BJP on its own has failed to secure the majority, unlike last two general elections.                No exit poll predicted this scenario. As per exit polls, BJP was going to reach majority mark on its own and NDA was going to win about 350 seats. But BJP has won 240 seats and NDA has won 292 seats. The results seem to be beyond the confidence intervals projected for the prediction. What does that say about exit polls? There are multiple possible answers to this question. I will rule out conspiracy answers at the outset. I am not going ahead with argument that exit polls were staged to help some agents. One interesting possibility that I might want to consider is false answers from voters. Respondent’s response to exit poll enumerator can be a strategic choice if respondent thinks that revealing what she...

In Industrial organization, study of competitiveness and market power in industry, there is a famous model called ‘ linear city ’. It was first developed by Herold Hotelling . The model can be described as follows: suppose there is a road of length 1 km running parallel to the beach. Two eateries are deciding where to locate. The footfall of consumers is evenly available across the length of the road. The model says that these both the eateries will locate in the middle.  The model is way of thinking - when preferences of consumers are spread over a range, how firms would like to position themselves to grab maximum profit through maximum market share.   The analogy of road representing consumer preferences can be used to describe voter preferences as well. For this discussion, I am focusing on religious politics in India. So, one extreme of this road means extreme right-wing position – which sees India as place where all non-Hindus are under total control of Hindus in the...

It is easy to lament what is happening in Maharashtra politics now. Playing with decency is unsaid expectation in human interactions. The decency is often not part of rules. Toppling the ruling disposition through turncoats will always have a foul appearance, even though currently BJP has enough spin doctors who can tell that what BJP is currently doing is the ‘right’ thing. Well, I am beyond the lament. I have accepted that being immoral is what we fundamentally are. Perhaps that’s why we have attempting to shape this fundamental tendency through morality, because we are afraid of what we will be if we just let ourselves amok. After lament, one can have a marvel at strategic moves which are being played. One can also draw some short- and long-term implications. That is what I am attempting now. 1.       BJP has learned from 80 hours government they had in 2019. That time they believed in a list Ajit Pawar had with him. This time, they are making sure that r...

 AC local ticker rates have been slashed. Economic argument for right type of price decrease is as follows. Prices are to be lowered when it is expected that it will lead to higher demand (since now prices are cheaper than earlier) which leads to considerable rise in revenue but not so much rise in costs. In economic jargon, demand should be elastic (so as it rises when prices are cut) while costs are increasing returns to scale (a lumpsum fixed cost up to certain level). Once we consider this, we can see why Railways lowered the prices of AC locals. The intuition of price reduction is understandable. Running an AC local costs certain fixed amount to the railway unless air-conditioning inside the train is precisely adjusted as per the number of passengers. (Though I am not sure whether that will have huge implication on cost.) Adding few more extra passengers will not change the cost much (some extra wear and tear is to be added to the cost, but that is not very significant rise ...

             This post is prompted by the Facebook past (about the incidence/anecdote about a conversation between C.D. Deshmukh and Lokamanya Tilak) of Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. I did not write this long response there since I am often terrified to express my opinions about inflammable issues on social media. His Facebookpost started with the question – ‘Did the soldiers who fought in the army of British India or the administrators who served in the colonial bureaucracy in effect betray their country?’ Those two words at the end, ‘in effect’ are very important. The answer hinges on them. The answer to the question is – YES. They did in effect betray their country if they had a notion of ‘my country’ in their conscience and if we think that British rule was actively harming the Indian then.     But we cannot make more direct charge of betrayal because they did not intend, plan, or choose to betray. The same way they never chose to fight...

The farm laws have been repealed. Government's decision to repeal hints that accusations of agitators about farm laws are intended to end the MSP regime and hurt the big farmers might have been true. And there is no surprise. The farm laws were about easing the fiscal burden government faced due to procurement based on MSP. If government is not planning to ditch this route, then why it was not ready to make a law for using it? - The repeal seems to vindicate the doubt. Government failed to communicate the potential trajectory of changes the laws could have generated. One reason why government would have chosen not to reveal it is because it might have revealed some unpleasant possibilities, like some big businesses benefiting or section of farmers losing out and large section of farmers having no gain – no loss from it. But there is another reason why government chose to not communicate. It did not because it is extremely paternalistic towards Indians. The approach of Modi govern...

 4th round of seroprevalence survey by ICMR in June-July 2021 has revealed that nearly 2/3rd of Indian population has antibodies. The presence of antibodies is assumed to indicate prior exposure (though not necessarily manifested with disease symptoms) to Coronavirus. Exposure to virus can be seen as indicative of low probability of Covid-19, at least for the short-term. Very high seropositivity, more than 70%, suggests low probability of occurrence of severe Covid-19 outbreak.  Table 1 After feeling somewhat relived over national estimate, if we look at state-level results, there is a variation of seropositivity levels. (Table 1) Seropositivity is highest in Madhya Pradesh (79%) and least in Kerala (44.4%). It has been noted with hint of surprise that Kerala and Maharashtra do not have very high seropositivity despite bagging the attention for their high Covid-19 numbers for sustained duration.  We must understand that one should read these state level numbers with some ...

 On 7 th June 2021, PM has announced that 21 st June onwards there will not be state government supplied vaccination for age group 18-45 and all publicly provided vaccination will be through union government. For the end user of government vaccination, it remains to be a free vaccine as it was earlier, but it is likely that availability will improve. So, henceforth state governments will not have to deal with vaccine makers. When there are multiple users and limited resource, allocation decision is a key decision. When state governments were dealing with vaccine makers, vaccine makers had the right/power to choose the allocation. Now, union government will have that right. Since we see vaccination as a key national activity, it is indeed a correct change that democratically elected entity oversees allocation question. So now vaccination policy in India stands in the optimal form after a required course-correction. There is a nationwide free supply of vaccine only by union gov...

 The news of private hospital ‘cornering’ 50% of the supply that has been sold in private market will lead to its share of outrage. The news heading is likely to be typically misleading, of 9 private hospitals cornering 50% of the doses, giving impression that out of total supply of vaccines 50% went to these 9 entities. The 50% is of total supply made to private hospitals. I do not find any surprise here. Vaccine makers will prefer large orders over bunch of small orders. It is likely that there will be distributing intermediaries between vaccine manufacturers and entities which conduct the vaccination to provide required large orders. Presence of intermediaries reduce profit of manufacturer as well as end of chain vaccinator. Large private hospital chains can bypass the intermediaries or provide the required large scale if there are no intermediaries. I am in fact surprised that nearly 50% of private market vaccine supply has gone to other than large players. It shows that even...

  Kiran Limaye, Himank Kavathekar -----------             On 8 November 2020, it will be four years to an announcement of policy of withdrawal and reissuance of high denomination currency notes, or what we popularly call ‘demonetization’. One of the stated objectives of the policy was encouraging the use of non-cash payment modes. It is generally considered that non-cash payment modes, debit and credit cards, mobile based payment mechanisms like UPI and prepaid payment instruments like mobile wallets are better than cash, for individual as well as for a society. These non-cash alternatives have less risk of theft and both ends of transactions are traced unlike cash which can be used without trace. But these non-cash modes require higher consumer involvement (for example, knowing pins and maintaining their secrecy and ability to operate smartphone beyond routine call receipt and dial) which are not acquired by section of popul...

 Contempt is a notion defined with pre-existence of sense of self. If I do not possess ego, a sense of self, then I will not get offended by any contempt thrown at me. Yet, contempt plays a role in society in terms of a signal. We learn by experiences, but we chose through signals. I decide to buy based on reviews, which are signals. I decide to choose a path of education based on signals. Contempt can change the nature of signals about a person, an organization and an institution and change in signals can bring change in response of clients. This is the logic of reaction of supreme court, that if nature of perception of Supreme court changes due to contemptuous statements about supreme court then it will lead to  harm of the nation as Indians will use the institution of Supreme court in sub-optimal manner. It is a kind of utilitarian or consequential logic. The objection of Prashant Bhushan (PB) remark is not out of the nature of remarks per say, but due to the consequences....