It is easy to lament what is happening in Maharashtra politics now. Playing with decency is unsaid expectation in human interactions. The decency is often not part of rules. Toppling the ruling disposition through turncoats will always have a foul appearance, even though currently BJP has enough spin doctors who can tell that what BJP is currently doing is the ‘right’ thing. Well, I am beyond the lament. I have accepted that being immoral is what we fundamentally are. Perhaps that’s why we have attempting to shape this fundamental tendency through morality, because we are afraid of what we will be if we just let ourselves amok.
After lament,
one can have a marvel at strategic moves which are being played. One can also
draw some short- and long-term implications. That is what I am attempting now.
1.
BJP
has learned from 80 hours government they had in 2019. That time they believed in
a list Ajit Pawar had with him. This time, they are making sure that rebels are
huddled, head-counted and vetted before the claim is staked. BJP has sponsored the
logistics while maintaining the façade of a rebellion.
2.
Eknath
Shinde’s rebellion is not unexpected. It was always a question of when than
why. Shivsena has a history of their biggest non-core family leaders moving
out. Bhujbal, Rane, Raj Thackeray, Naik are few examples. Shivsena regional
satraps either must contain their ambitions or rebel. One possibility was Shinde
quitting among disintegration phase Shivsena would have had after the loss of
Mumbai municipal election. But he would have led the exits whenever they would
have happened. Thane is a second-most important region to Shivsena after Mumbai
and Shinde controls it.
3.
Aiming
at second in the ranks is a well-groomed strategy in politics. The second one
always had to wonder about possibilities of succession, ascension, and annihilation
in case succession goes to rival. The issue that Eknath Shinde will face now is
whether he launches regional outfit of his own or becomes a strong but
non-hierarchical satrap in the scheme of BJP. There is a faint chance that he
ever becomes a contender and eventual guy at the helm like Hemanta Biswas Sarma
in Assam. In Assam, BJP needed Sarma as much as he needed BJP. In case of
Shinde, BJP holds more power in relationship.
4.
The
case of those who have jumped the ship with Shinde is more precarious. Shinde has
good relationship with BJP. He perhaps has ability to get himself, his son, and
some of his men elected on his own if it comes to that, though it remains to be
seen. But those who have jumped with him have done so on the assumption that
they will be backed by BJP, for now and for next election.
5.
So
far, Shinde’s argument is about allying with BJP and not merging with them. He knows
that his stature stands to diminish if he merges. But allying requires either
Shinde claiming Shivsena and ousting Thackeray or registering a separate outfit.
The first possibility looks very dim. It is difficult to conceive of Shivsena
without Thackeray. Voters and cadre will not see it that way unless Thackeray themselves
dissociate from party. Such dissociation is unlikely.
6.
So,
we are left with second possibility. But can Shinde provide a pan-state
leadership? The past evidence of Bhujbal, Rane, Naik is negative. Shinde’s
clout is based as much on charisma as much on patronage, perhaps more on later.
Certainly, his charisma outside Thane will be severely diminished. How much
patronage he can provide in other parts of the state will be the key factor in
this case. It is not impossible. Afterall, he has overseen PWD for last 8 years
and Urban Development for last 2.5 years and that must have allowed them to
span his network across the state. Without such clout he could not have taken
more than half of the elected party MLAs with him. But the new outfit will have
challenge of coherent force. Natural choice is it becomes one more Hindutva
party, after BJP and Shivsena. But that does not read exciting. Such existence
will be de-facto merge with BJP.
7.
So
that is perhaps the only choice. Shinde takes more than 2/3rd of
Shivsena MLAs with him and merges with BJP. BJP then stakes the claim, either
through no-confidence vote or staking claim once Uddhav Thackeray resigns. As discussed
earlier, merge ensures the status of Shinde, but prospects of further rise, to CM
post, remains uncertain. Fadanavis is reputed to have his challengers trimmed to
the size, though how that takes place is unclear. Shinde’s rise is possible if
Fadanavis moves to centre after 2024.
8.
So,
the key factor as of now is whether and when Shinde gets 2/3rd of
Shivsena MLAs. Once it is done, BJP comes back to power. The retribution from
BJP will be tremendous and Maharashtra will witness more bitter politics once
the change takes place.
9.
The
first and foremost will be decimation of whatever is left of Shivsena. Shivsena
will be facing its worst existential crisis and perhaps the end in next few
years. Even though Uddhav Thackeray has shown admirable response till now, he is
recharging the weakened party to its near-past level seems an unlikely event. Shivsena
has lost the moral power of politics around Marathi identity. They will face
swift loss of leaders and cadres and eventually become part of the history –
this is the most likely outcome.
10.
Possible
Demise of Shivsena can accelerate the eventual end of regional parties
all-around India. Regional parties are the main challenger to BJP, at both
state and national level. Regional parties are structured with a leading family
at helm and their regional satraps using charisma of core family in return of
providing the cadre. Core family exchanges charisma to negotiate the patronage,
from the position of power or of opposition, and provides overarching legal and
political counsel to its satraps. The structure weakens if charisma of core
family weakens. The charisma is a strength and limitation of these parties. The
charisma is unlikely to hold when BJP turns the heat of all agencies at its
disposal on it. The choice for these parties is merge or fade.
11.
Regional
parties have been key to regional identities and their demise will weaken the
regional identities considerably. A ‘Hindi’ culture will eventually fill up
that space, eventually becoming a national identity.
12.
The
pace of this process will be different in different regions. And the process is
not inevitable. It requires continuation of majority rule of BJP in the centre.
As of now, that seems to be the case. It will become an unlikely case in 2024
if there is a considerable negative perception on economic front. Otherwise, discontinuity
to BJP rule is possible when BJP faces a rebellion. That seems unlikely, but
one just has to look what happened to Congress post Nehru.