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Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017

My expectation was BJP maintaining its seat-tally of previous election which was 117. What I see on Election commission website (7.30 pm of 18-12-2017) is 99 seats (lead+win) for BJP and 77 for Congress. So BJP has lost 18 seats, from 117 to 99 and Congress has gained 18, from 59 to 77. BJP has won the election, but sheen is lost.

year

BJP
Seat change from Previous election
Major Opposition (congress and/or other regional party explicitly in opposition of BJP)
Result

2014
Maharashtra
+76
-61
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2014
Haryana
+43
-37

Incumbent lost
2014
J&K
+14
-18

Incumbent lost
2014
Jharkhand
+19
-2

Incumbent lost
2015
Delhi
-29 (from 2014 election)
+39 (from 2014 election)
Non-BJP rule

2015
Bihar
-38
-86 (if JDU+BJP is considered)
+58 (for RJD)
First Non-BJP and then BJP coalition with non-BJP CM
Incumbent coalition lost
2016
Assam
+55
-53
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Punjab
-9
+51
Non-BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Goa
-8
+8
BJP rule with coalition
Incumbent continued
2017
Uttar Pradesh
+265
-259
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Uttarakhand
+26
-24
BJP rule
Incumbent Lost
2017
Manipur
+21
-19
BJP rule with coalition
Incumbent lost
2017
Himachal Pradesh
+18
-15
BJP
Incumbent lost

In all elections post-May 2014 where BJP put itself as a major force, only in Delhi, Punjab, Bihar and Goa, it has experienced reduction is number of seats and opposition parties have gained in their seats. In many of the states where BJP made massive strides, it toppled the incumbent. In Punjab, BJP lost due to anti-incumbency. In Goa, BJP managed to retain power thanks to clever maneuvering of their leadership. In Gujarat, BJP had been ruling for last 4 terms. Hindutva with face of development and limbs of assertive strategic violence emerged first in Gujarat. 
Considering these various factors, lost of 18 seats by BJP and equivalent gain by Congress shows that BJP's command over Gujarat was mix of cadre as well as charisma of Modi. BJP has lost the charisma of Modi since he became PM in May 2014. As he shifted to Delhi, the ambitions of second rung of leaders found a space and weakened the cohesion. Yet, the majority with 99 seat shows that Party still has a great cadre control in state. No party can manage 5 terms without having a well-oiled party machine. BJP has got one in Gujarat. 2017 election is further affirmation of the same. 
What the result surely points out is absence of wave. Wave was anyway unlikely in Gujarat because there was no depression caused against anything which would have allowed wave to rise. What many have believed that emergence of Modi as PM will generate further buoyancy in BJP support, something that has not occurred. 
What should worry BJP is the fact unlike Devendra Fadanavis of Maharashtra or Yogi Adityanath in UP, there is absence of charismatic state level leader. 
What we have been looking for are signs of 2019 general election. Congress is sure to feel elated from its performance in Gujarat. But it also shows that BJP is still retaining a dominant captive vote share. Considering the social media grip of BJP, this dominant captive share of voters of BJP must have grown from 2014. 
Though liking for BJP has reduced somewhat, as most of their magical development promises are likely to cause, one must see that voters are not seeing Congress as a substitute. There is a vacuum to what voters can shift to if they are tired of BJP's brand of jingoistic and paternalistic religion clad nationalism. Rahul Gandhi cannot shade the tag of Congress being Gandhi family property, he will further highlight it. As more and more voters will vote with rational calculations, they are less and less likely to turn towards Congress as an alternative. The gain of Congress in Gujarat is not at all due to Rahul Gandhi's charisma. It is simply an indicative of how strongly Modi had gripped Gujarat.
As I see now, in 2019, voters will remain with BJP simply because they will not see anyone to turn to. It is in 2024, that we will see interesting times.    
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Location: Adharwadi, Khadakpada, Kalyan, Maharashtra 421301, India

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