Skip to main content

Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017

My expectation was BJP maintaining its seat-tally of previous election which was 117. What I see on Election commission website (7.30 pm of 18-12-2017) is 99 seats (lead+win) for BJP and 77 for Congress. So BJP has lost 18 seats, from 117 to 99 and Congress has gained 18, from 59 to 77. BJP has won the election, but sheen is lost.

year

BJP
Seat change from Previous election
Major Opposition (congress and/or other regional party explicitly in opposition of BJP)
Result

2014
Maharashtra
+76
-61
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2014
Haryana
+43
-37

Incumbent lost
2014
J&K
+14
-18

Incumbent lost
2014
Jharkhand
+19
-2

Incumbent lost
2015
Delhi
-29 (from 2014 election)
+39 (from 2014 election)
Non-BJP rule

2015
Bihar
-38
-86 (if JDU+BJP is considered)
+58 (for RJD)
First Non-BJP and then BJP coalition with non-BJP CM
Incumbent coalition lost
2016
Assam
+55
-53
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Punjab
-9
+51
Non-BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Goa
-8
+8
BJP rule with coalition
Incumbent continued
2017
Uttar Pradesh
+265
-259
BJP rule
Incumbent lost
2017
Uttarakhand
+26
-24
BJP rule
Incumbent Lost
2017
Manipur
+21
-19
BJP rule with coalition
Incumbent lost
2017
Himachal Pradesh
+18
-15
BJP
Incumbent lost

In all elections post-May 2014 where BJP put itself as a major force, only in Delhi, Punjab, Bihar and Goa, it has experienced reduction is number of seats and opposition parties have gained in their seats. In many of the states where BJP made massive strides, it toppled the incumbent. In Punjab, BJP lost due to anti-incumbency. In Goa, BJP managed to retain power thanks to clever maneuvering of their leadership. In Gujarat, BJP had been ruling for last 4 terms. Hindutva with face of development and limbs of assertive strategic violence emerged first in Gujarat. 
Considering these various factors, lost of 18 seats by BJP and equivalent gain by Congress shows that BJP's command over Gujarat was mix of cadre as well as charisma of Modi. BJP has lost the charisma of Modi since he became PM in May 2014. As he shifted to Delhi, the ambitions of second rung of leaders found a space and weakened the cohesion. Yet, the majority with 99 seat shows that Party still has a great cadre control in state. No party can manage 5 terms without having a well-oiled party machine. BJP has got one in Gujarat. 2017 election is further affirmation of the same. 
What the result surely points out is absence of wave. Wave was anyway unlikely in Gujarat because there was no depression caused against anything which would have allowed wave to rise. What many have believed that emergence of Modi as PM will generate further buoyancy in BJP support, something that has not occurred. 
What should worry BJP is the fact unlike Devendra Fadanavis of Maharashtra or Yogi Adityanath in UP, there is absence of charismatic state level leader. 
What we have been looking for are signs of 2019 general election. Congress is sure to feel elated from its performance in Gujarat. But it also shows that BJP is still retaining a dominant captive vote share. Considering the social media grip of BJP, this dominant captive share of voters of BJP must have grown from 2014. 
Though liking for BJP has reduced somewhat, as most of their magical development promises are likely to cause, one must see that voters are not seeing Congress as a substitute. There is a vacuum to what voters can shift to if they are tired of BJP's brand of jingoistic and paternalistic religion clad nationalism. Rahul Gandhi cannot shade the tag of Congress being Gandhi family property, he will further highlight it. As more and more voters will vote with rational calculations, they are less and less likely to turn towards Congress as an alternative. The gain of Congress in Gujarat is not at all due to Rahul Gandhi's charisma. It is simply an indicative of how strongly Modi had gripped Gujarat.
As I see now, in 2019, voters will remain with BJP simply because they will not see anyone to turn to. It is in 2024, that we will see interesting times.    
Labels:
Location: Adharwadi, Khadakpada, Kalyan, Maharashtra 421301, India

Popular posts from this blog

Why exit polls got it so wrong?

Results of India general elections 2024 have thrown a surprise no one saw coming. NDA has secured a majority but BJP on its own has failed to secure the majority, unlike last two general elections.                No exit poll predicted this scenario. As per exit polls, BJP was going to reach majority mark on its own and NDA was going to win about 350 seats. But BJP has won 240 seats and NDA has won 292 seats. The results seem to be beyond the confidence intervals projected for the prediction. What does that say about exit polls? There are multiple possible answers to this question. I will rule out conspiracy answers at the outset. I am not going ahead with argument that exit polls were staged to help some agents. One interesting possibility that I might want to consider is false answers from voters. Respondent’s response to exit poll enumerator can be a strategic choice if respondent thinks that revealing what she...
Read more

Balia suffers and Mumbai stares

  More than 100 have died in Balia and Deoria district of Uttar Pradesh in last few days . These districts have experienced heatwave conditions. IMD has given orange alert warning (40℃ to 45℃) for these as well as other districts in Eastern Uttar Pradesh. For those who are aware, Kim Stanley Robinson’s Climate fiction ‘The Ministry for the Future’ opens with a stunning description of heatwave related deaths in Uttar Pradesh. What is happening now in Deoria and Balia district has uncanny resemblance to what author has imagined. In some sense, we have been made aware of what awaits us, though we have decided to bury it because it is inconvenient. Even now, these deaths are not officially attributed to heatwave. Here is what I think have happened. It is a hypothesis rather than a statement with some proof. Balia and Deoria are districts near Ganga, a large water body. Rising temperatures have caused greater evaporation of this water body leading to excessive humidity in the surr...
Read more

Haunting spectre of humid summers

3 months of the summer of 2023 have passed so far. Compared to last year, this summer has been less scorching. The temperatures in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) were around 40℃ in March and April 2022. This year, it was only in April, temperatures rose to that uncomfortable level. March 2023 was surprisingly pleasant this time, more so because we anticipated something harsher. After the 23 rd April 2023, temperature have dropped by few degrees and most importantly it has become somewhat tolerable again. But this summer has left an indelible mark on our memory due to several deaths caused by heatstroke on 16 th April 2023 . Deaths of heatstroke is not the possibility one typically associates with MMR. We have train track deaths and reckless driving for such association. (Perhaps we add ‘mauled by stray dogs’ as well, if not now then in near future!) Those deaths reminded me of climate fiction ‘ The Ministry for the Future ’ by Kim Stanley Robinson. This novel opens with a clima...
Read more