Discussion about who will form government in Maharashtra is just everywhere. The chance that occasional conversation overheard while walking in road is about government formation. News channel and news papers have done nothing to provide clarity to observers. They are part of the melee of speculative clickbait articles.
It seems that SHS, NCP and INC are trying to forge an alliance to form the government. Nothing more unnatural than SHS aligning with two congress parties. SHS represents jingoistic, chauvinist politics something which congress parties are known to be averse of. Core voter of SHS is mainly anti-congress. Parties are wary of the alliance because they understand that path of alliance will be full of perils. Examples of Karnataka, Bihar and north eastern states are too close to be forgotten. In all these states, anti-BJP alliance was formed, which soon ran into trouble and eventually BJP formed the government.
SHS and both the congresses are decentralized parties around family based leadership. Relation between core leader and other leader is tributary, where stalwart leader pay tribute to family while being nearly autonomous in their region. Such system allows these parties to function without strong centralized cadre as each leader maintains own retinue of political workers, who are primarily loyal to leader and indirectly loyal to party. These regional leaders develop polito-economic empire using political patronage gained by loyalty to core leadership. Core leadership can have loyal commanders as long as it can distribute the patronage.
With BJP emerging as ruling party at all level of government, central, state, district and city, these parties are having trouble in generating enough political patronage as most of political patronage is with BJP. This is the key reason of pre-election defections.
NCP and Maharashtra INC generate patronage through state government expenditure as well as with their businesses allied with state economy, like construction. SHS generates considerable patronage by their control of municipal corporation of Mumbai. SHS has key stakes in real estate business in Mumbai as many of their corporates are real estate businessmen. (It is also true for other parties as well.) Real estate in Mumbai is regulated by state government. This is the reason 'urban development' was one of the ministry sought by SHS when it was negotiating with BJP. (Interestingly, CM Fadanavis himself looked after urban development!)
These three parties are in deadly dilemma.
If they form the government, then they face following dangers.
It seems that SHS, NCP and INC are trying to forge an alliance to form the government. Nothing more unnatural than SHS aligning with two congress parties. SHS represents jingoistic, chauvinist politics something which congress parties are known to be averse of. Core voter of SHS is mainly anti-congress. Parties are wary of the alliance because they understand that path of alliance will be full of perils. Examples of Karnataka, Bihar and north eastern states are too close to be forgotten. In all these states, anti-BJP alliance was formed, which soon ran into trouble and eventually BJP formed the government.
SHS and both the congresses are decentralized parties around family based leadership. Relation between core leader and other leader is tributary, where stalwart leader pay tribute to family while being nearly autonomous in their region. Such system allows these parties to function without strong centralized cadre as each leader maintains own retinue of political workers, who are primarily loyal to leader and indirectly loyal to party. These regional leaders develop polito-economic empire using political patronage gained by loyalty to core leadership. Core leadership can have loyal commanders as long as it can distribute the patronage.
With BJP emerging as ruling party at all level of government, central, state, district and city, these parties are having trouble in generating enough political patronage as most of political patronage is with BJP. This is the key reason of pre-election defections.
NCP and Maharashtra INC generate patronage through state government expenditure as well as with their businesses allied with state economy, like construction. SHS generates considerable patronage by their control of municipal corporation of Mumbai. SHS has key stakes in real estate business in Mumbai as many of their corporates are real estate businessmen. (It is also true for other parties as well.) Real estate in Mumbai is regulated by state government. This is the reason 'urban development' was one of the ministry sought by SHS when it was negotiating with BJP. (Interestingly, CM Fadanavis himself looked after urban development!)
These three parties are in deadly dilemma.
If they form the government, then they face following dangers.
- No party can accommodate all of its powerful leaders in cabinet. The friction and heat will always threaten the parties glued together by their anti-BJP stance.
- Core voters will be upset with parties. If alliance government falls and mid-term elections are conducted, SHS is likely to suffer considerably.
- Even if alliance completes 5 years, even then they face election threat, unless they have outstanding governance, which is very unlikely.
Parties are aware of these dangers and hence they are wary to form the government, especially congress, which is unlike NCP and SHS is multi-state party and would not like to get punished by voters in other states because of there cuddling with SHS in Maharashtra.
But if these parties do not form government, then they face danger of accelerated extinction. Their leaders need patronage, for which core leadership (at state level) needs to be in power.
So it is mainly about either being decimated in midterm election or eventual death due to lack of power.
SHS has burnt its boats by going with NCP and INC. Whether or not it forms the government, voters are very likely to punish it.
BJP is not out of danger completely. By slim chance, alliance rules for 5 years and Modi wave declines even further in 2014, then BJP will have to fight with impoverished cadre with danger of factionalism in their army of ex-congressmen. But if mid-term elections take place, then sympathy and anger can work in BJP's favor.
It is mid-term election most likely, unless anti-BJP glue proves strong enough!