There is a ripple of life among Dalit activists whom I observe on social media after the Gujarat election result. The win by Jignesh Mewani have breathed a new hope into political aspirations of these activists. Then in two weeks, Jignesh Mewani was asked to speak at an event organized at Shaniwarwada, Pune to commemorate the Bhima-Koregaon. The choice of Shaniwarwada and city of Pune itself signals a strategic acumen. Pune district is Maratha stronghold while Pune city, is associated with Peshwa, who were prime minister and de facto decision makers of Maratha empire. Peshwa period is part of historical narrative which Hindu right groups like to boast about, going to length of painting defeat at Panipat as moral victory.
Even more surprising was apparent unanimity of different Dalit and other organizations in using Jignesh Mewani as a face of whole event. The popular perception of Dalit politics is of leaders who are pawned by dominant political parties as per need, by using various carrots. In Maharashtra, there are several Dalit political outfits with no overarching charismatic leadership. On this background, the thrust with which Jignesh Mewani speeches and fame has been dispersed through social media is surprising.
The group that came together for 200th anniversary of Bhima-Koregaon was from diverse ideological positions. There were communists, Dalit activists and fringe Maratha organizations which are anti-Brahmin and not so anti-Dalit (unlike the leaders of Maratha morchas who rallied Maratha last year). It seems that the group has learned from the BJP, a rival which they would like to defeat as early as possible.
The first learning is using symbolism. Rather than daydreaming that voters can be rallied by intellectual criticisms or dailytics, symbolism of Bhima-Koregaon is being applied to rally the sympathizers.
Second learning is use of surprise vandalism. One tactics which BJP and it's illicit cousin groups have honed in last few decades is surprise vandalism(including violence), in different events, streets or against persons. What happened in Mumbai and Pune on 2nd January 2018 was use of same tactic by emerging dalit leadership. Like BJP's recipe, no popular face was part of these surprise agitations. Only later in the day, Prakash Ambedkar gave a call for Maharashtra Bandh on 3rd January 2018.
The bandh, which has been in action with partial success in last few hours, is further sign of coordinated strategizing of anti-BJP front. From 7.30 am in the morning till afternoon, protesters have been in action at some or other place and they have demonstrated their nuisance successfully. Dalit organizations have never demonstrated their nuisance value with this craft and with this might anytime before, as much I remember.
What works in their favor is BJP's predicament of accommodation of two rival power groups. In Maharashtra, it is between Maratha and Dalit. Even though shifting weight towards Maratha will help BJP in Maharashtra, anti-Dalit image can hurt them in cow belt in general election of 2019.
But there is more to the rise of Jignesh Mewani than this tripartite game.
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I listened to first few minutes of his speech in Shaniwarwada event. In my opinion, he is too much vocal against BJP leadership, there is too much self-patting and too much chest-thumping. But what I have learnt in last few years is, majority of voters might actually like it. His somewhat crude but inhibited style might appeal to voters. I actually got reminded of speeches by Shivsena and MNS leaders.
It will be interesting to track the path Jignesh Mewani will travel. I think he and his group would do best if they can take further leaf from BJP's rise. BJP became a force to reckon with late 1980s, but it took them further 25 years to become a dominant force. In those 25 years, BJP became a pole to which all political parties reacted. Right now, BJP is like Congress under Indira Gandhi, which didn't allow any rival to emerge. It is only after Indira Gandhi's reign, BJP got space to grow.
One crucial difference between Indira Gandhi's congress and current BJP is that BJP has more hardcore and dispersed leadership. So their stronghold will loosen much slowly. Opposition needs to play the long game, where they first force BJP to react to them, like RG did in Gujarat assembly election in 2017. It is highly unlikely that they can topple BJP in 2019. The measure of success should be how much they constrain BJP in states where BJP is a major force. AAP did a mistake of trying to grow too quickly, something they seem to be avoiding now. The difficult task is too maintain the strength of cadre for long battle, especially when gains from power are not there to be enjoyed.
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The current strategizing of anti-BJP and non-Congress group is backward looking. The politics is not one for liberal democracy as voters are forced to choose identities ridden with historical baggages. But I hope that after emergence of Dalit political force, the wheel will stop and India will get rid of these identities of historical baggages. But before the end, the clash of identities will flare too hot, a necessary condition for the end.
Let's hope we are going few steps back so that we leap to more equal-footed and more mature democracy.