Inconsistencies and Contradictions

             The key takeaway from PM's speech on 31st December 2016 was except the scheme declared for pregnant mothers, all other schemes are interest rate subsidies.               The housing scheme was kind of anticipated. PM has talked first about his vision of 'Housing for all by 2022' in his Madison square address. Then he reiterated the objective last month in one of his speeches. In today's speech, first definite measures have been announced towards achieving this objective. I think it's laudable, though I am slightly skeptical about wrong set of beneficiaries using the scheme and possible domino effects of using credit as main channel of boosting the growth.               One wonders how exactly government is going balance the trick of maintaining government deficit vis-a-vis bearing burden of all subsidies. I think the gap between value of old invalid notes a...

I was watching a news clip where Indian PM visited Golden temple along with Afghanistan President before ‘Heart of Asia’ summit. And my first thought was of a complete cynic. ‘Shouldn’t a patriotic Indian seek apology from Afghanistan President for the plunders of Ahmed Shad Durani or Abdali?’ Then I realized that there is some poetry or design of fate in the fact that I witnessed on video: Afghanistan PM wearing a saffron shawl (उपरणे in Marathi ) in Golden Temple during the visit. Saffron was not a random choice!                 Why do I see the poetry or design? Here’s the interesting fact, not an academic explanation!               Apparently, as Wikipedia tell me, Ala Singh, may be the ruler of Patiala, had been with Abdali during the third battle of Panipat or his time in India and Ala Singh was crowned as first Sikh Maharaja at the Sikh ho...

पुढे दिलेल्या लिंक्स आणि थोडेसे विश्लेषण, त्यांत आलेली अनेक मते, शक्यता ह्यांच्यातून काही हायपोथेसिस मिळतील अशा दृष्टीने मी त्यांच्याकडे बघतो. ठाम काही बोलण्यासाठी लागणारा डेटा आणि clarity इतक्या पटकन येणार नाही (मला तरी) असं मला वाटतं. १.      प्रत्यक्षात छापलेले जुने रद्द चलन ( किंमत सुमारे १४ ट्रिलीयन रुपये) आणि चलनबदलीच्या कालावधीत बँकात जमा होणारे जुने रद्द चलन ह्यांच्यात्तील फरक हा रिझर्व्ह बँकेला फायदा ठरेल. कायद्याने तो सरकारला उपलब्ध होईल. सरकार त्याचा वापर करू शकते. अनेक निरीक्षकांच्या मते एन.पी.ए.च्या समस्येने ग्रासलेल्या बँकांना re-capitalize करायला हा फायदा वापरता येईल. रिझर्व्ह बँकेचे माजी गव्हर्नर डी. सुब्बाराव ह्यांनी असे करणे चुकीचे ठरेल असं म्हटलं आहे . (त्याच वक्तव्यात चलनबदलीचे फायदे हे तोट्याहून अधिक आहेत असेही त्यांनी म्हटले आहे.) हा फरक कशामुळे निर्माण होईल? ह्याचे लोकप्रिय उत्तर आहे कि काळ्या पैशामुळे. बेहिशोबी चलन हे बँकात बदलायला आणले जाणार नाही किंवा आणणे अशक्य असेल आणि त्यामुळे त्याची किंमत विरून जाईल. सुमारे ३ ट्रिलीयन रुपये एवढ्य...

I have come across the ‘tragedy of commons’ while learning about the Public Goods. Last night, standing in the queue at the ATM, I witnessed something which made me thought about ‘Tragedy of Commons’.          There were about 20 people in the ATM queue, few were informing others, few were walking towards it and it was anticipated that many more will flock in soon. The machine was dispensing only ₹ 2000 notes. There was a guard inside in ATM who was insisting that a person should use a single ATM card when he is in front of the ATM. As he reasoned with few customers, such restriction will allow more people to withdraw cash. Initially, customers agreed to this reasoning and made only one withdrawal. But soon, a customer argued that how can this guard enforce such restriction and he (customer) is not aware of any such rule enforced from the government or the Bank who operates this ATM. Because of the rule pointing argument and more than that, se...

Now, it has been week when we woke up to a realization that ₹ 500 and $ 1000 notes that many of us had are no more a legal tender. After the frenzied 1 st day, when everyone kept strategizing about their response, 2 nd day onwards, we are witnessing long queues in bank branches and ATMs. There are reports of 25 deaths in the country during the week which are reported to be due to demonetization decision. Market has been in the red, though on the first day, after collapsing for about more than 1500 points, it recovered back strongly. But then 14 th and 15 th November, market has collapsed further. (As I am writing this on 16 th November morning around 9 AM, market is up by about 150 points.) Newspapers have been reporting about long queues and slow sales. Somehow, there is no way that one can credibly verify what is happening in different parts of the country. Social media is abuzz with mainly support and little critique. That’s the grip of current government on minds. I think ...

         Maharashtra government recently (13 th October 2016) declared that EBC (Economically backward class) benefits limit will now cover incomes up to 6 lakhs and students from all castes will get fee reimbursement. ( news here ) ( Government resolution, in real terse Marathi, is here ) These benefits are not really comparable to caste based affirmative actions, though there is some comparable element. The main argument that I want to make here is: ‘if it is easy to show lower income to claim benefits, then income based affirmative actions will generate large proportion of wrongful beneficiaries.’ I understand that this is a very common-sense claim. And, that’s what makes Maharashtra government’s decision a real curious one. Either it is complete naivety (which I think is less likely) or systematic disregard of efficiency motivated by political calculations (common tool among ruling politician’s armoury). I do not have any systematic evidence on how easy...

           I am calling it ‘dismal’ because I am trying to analyse the demand and supply for badminton which is typically done is one dismal branch of academics, and not because situation is grim. It must be certainly looking up and there seems to be lack of dark clouds and only patriotic silver linings. I would have liked to have some hard numbers at hand to either nip my questions in the bud or to present them forcefully. In absence of such data, I will make an attempt to make some reasoned judgments.             I think P V Sindhu’s silver medal will shift the demand curve for badminton outward, at least for a while. Are existing badminton facilities are going to become expensive for the short run? Will we see increase in memberships of badminton clubs and Yonex purchases? (A cynic in me whispers in my ear that my whole guess work is outcome of social media euphoria. Are more tweets going to brin...

सर्वोच्च न्यायालयाने दही हंडीच्या संदर्भात काही एक निर्णय १७-८-२०१६ रोजी दिल्याच्या बातम्या वृत्तपत्रात आल्या. मला ह्या निकालाची/आदेशाची मूळ प्रत मिळू शकलेली नाही. मी ज्या बातम्या वाचल्या त्यानुसार मला ह्या निर्णयाची दोन महत्वाची वैशिष्ट्ये लक्षात आली आहेत. खरोखरचा न्यायालयीन निर्देश काय आहे ह्याच्याऐवजी ह्या दोन महत्वाच्या बाबी खरोखर न्यायालयाने निर्देश केल्या आहेत असे मानून मी पुढील लिखाण करतो आहे. ह्या दोन बाबी म्हणजे:     १.       दही हंडीच्या थरांची उंची २० फुटांपेक्षा जास्त नसावी.     २.       १८ वर्षाखालील व्यक्तींना दही हंडीमध्ये भाग घेण्यास मनाई न्यायालयाच्या आदेशाचा आणि त्यापाठी असलेल्या चिकित्सेचा पूर्ण आदर करून मला असं म्हणायचं आहे कि न्यायालयाने घातलेल्या ह्या अटी मूलभूत मानवी स्वातंत्र्यावर अनावश्यक निर्बंध घालणाऱ्या आहेत. अर्थात ह्या निर्देशांना होणारा विरोध हा प्रामुख्याने सांस्कृतिक वगैरे कारणांनी होतो आहे. पण मला वाटतं ज्या न्यायान्वये आपण समलैंगिक संबंध हे दोन प्रौढ व्यक्तींनी परस्पर संमती...

            It is almost 4 days since RBI governor Dr. Rajan made his ‘back to academia’ decision public. Much has been said and still being pondered upon. I have read few articles and many social media expressions. And I simply lack the ability to summarize things in nice little sentences. So I am going to be little lengthy. I am not the guy who knows much about monetary economics or knows behind the scenes in policy-making. So clearly there are lots of mistakes. Please bring them to light. The purpose of this writing is majorly to clear my own head and secondly, reduce the unwarranted heat around me if possible.                       When I first come to know about the decision, I was saddened as if there is some loss. Then, because of some insensitive looking FB responses and my own pondering, I thought why I am thinking this as a loss and not as ...